Fig. 3

Marginal response curves for the most important six variables included in the species distribution model for current environmental conditions. The variables are ordered in relation to their contribution to the model (importance score), annual mean temperature (BIO1, °C), isothermality (BIO3, °C), temperature seasonality (BIO4, %), precipitation of wettest quarter (BIO16, mm), precipitation seasonality (BIO15, %) and bulk density of fine earth fraction (kg m−3). The mean level (black or grey lines) and standard deviation (grey area) of the occurrence probability