Table 6 Estimates for the fixed and random effects of the mixed-effect models of height, reproduction and survival. Pearson’s R correlation between the observed and predicted data using independent training and validation datasets; marginal variance explained by the fixed effects (R²M) and by the fixed and random effects together (R²C) for the three final mixed-effect models. Results are obtained after 100 bootstraps. PROV = Provenance; SITE = Planting site; TPROV = Average annual temperature of the provenance; TSITE = Average annual temperature of the planting site; RPROV = Average annual rainfall of the provenance; RSITE = Average annual rainfall of the planting site

PROV

Intercept

0.07

0.27

SITE

Intercept

0.34

0.59

Residual

0.05

0.21

Estimate

Std. error

T value

Intercept

0.16

0.19

0.82

AGE

0.74

0.15

4.83

RPROV

0.10

0.05

1.89

RSITE

0.72

0.26

2.81

RPROV^2

 − 0.24

0.11

 − 2.29

Pearson’s R

0.81

R ² M

0.57

R ² C

0.97

Reproduction

Groups

Variance

Std. dev

PROV

Intercept

0.37

0.61

SITE

Intercept

0.14

0.38

Residual

0.25

0.50

Estimate

Std. error

T value

Intercept

 − 0.23

0.18

 − 1.32

AGE

0.32

0.10

3.11

TPROV

 − 0.23

0.12

 − 1.78

TSITE

0.34

0.15

2.33

Pearson’s R

0.55

R ² M

0.38

R ² C

0.77

Survival

Groups

Variance

Std. dev

PROV

Intercept

0.04

0.20

SITE

Intercept

0.56

0.75

Residual

0.32

0.57

Estimate

Std. error

T value

Intercept

0.20

0.24

0.77

RPROV

0.09

0.06

1.50

RSITE

0.99

0.36

2.45

TSITE

 − 0.45

0.21

 − 1.89

RSITE^2

 − 0.30

0.14

 − 2.10

RPROV:TSITE

0.13

0.05

2.89

Pearson’s R

0.55

R ² M

0.27

R ² C

0.74