Table 5 Goodness of fit and coefficients (standard errors in parentheses) for the best linear mixed-effects models of total basal area and replacement index. Significance levels *P < 0.05, **P < 0.01, and ***P < 0.001, respectively. Predictors have been standardized previously to fit the models

Intercept

16.95(1.85) ***

0.33 (0.17)*

Year of reference (2002)

4.84 (0.66) ***

0.04 (0.08)

Year of reference (2015)

10.20 (0.73) ***

 − 0.22 (0.10)*

National Park area

9.27 (2.18) ***

0.22 (0.19)

Altitude

 − 1.69 (1.12)

0.77 (0.09)***

Aspect (cosine)

2.33 (1.02) *

 − 0.21 (0.09)*

Total basal area

-

 − 0.24 (0.07)**

Year of reference (2002) * altitude

 − 1.35 (0.74)

-

Year of reference (2015) * altitude

 − 3.52 (0.84) ***

-

Altitude * total basal area

-

0.29 (0.77)***

AIC

3450.78

1337.41

Marginal R²

0.20

0.30

Conditional R²

0.87

0.78

Kolmogorov–Smirnov test

0.18

0.15