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Table 4 Results of tests of three hypotheses associated with impacts of simulations of seed transfer system scenarios (Table 2)

From: Evaluating the effectiveness of climate-based seed transfer and assisted migration: a case study of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Dougl.) and interior spruce (Picea engelmanii x glauca (Moench) Voss and their hybrids) in western Canada

 

t-test scenario

a

b

    

Hypotheses

a > b

 

SD

 

SD

medHTp difference (%)

Volume difference (%)

Deployment ratio

p-value

Lodgepole pine

 1. Height growth is greater in CBST-AM than in CBST

11 > 3

92.5 (%)

0.13 (%)

84.9 (%)

0.25 (%)

7.6

15.3

 

0.0000

 2. Height growth is greater in CBST than in GBST

3 > 17

84.9 (%)

0.25 (%)

86.0 (%)

0.26 (%)

 − 1.1

 − 2.3

 

0.0004

 3. Height growth is greater in CBST-AM than in GBST

11 > 17

92.5 (%)

0.13 (%)

86.0 (%)

0.26 (%)

6.5

13.0

 

0.0000

 1. Deployment area is greater in CBST-AM than in CBST

11 > 3

28,215 (km2)

1314 (km2)

57,204 (km2)

788 (km2)

  

0.5

0.0000

 2. Deployment area is greater in CBST than in GBST

3 > 17

57,204 (km2)

788 (km2)

12,725 (km2)

769 (km2)

  

4.5

0.0000

 3. Deployment area is greater in CBST-AM than in GBST

11 > 17

28,215 (km2)

1314 (km2)

12,725 (km2)

769 (km2)

  

2.2

0.0000

Interior spruce

 1. Height growth is greater in CBST-AM than in CBST

11 > 3

94.7 (%)

0.04 (%)

92.4 (%)

0.05 (%)

2.3

4.7

 

0.0000

 2. Height growth is greater in CBST than in GBST

3 > 17

92.4 (%)

0.05 (%)

91.7 (%)

0.31 (%)

0.7

1.4

 

0.0103

 3. Height growth is greater in CBST-AM than in GBST

11 > 17

94.7 (%)

0.04 (%)

91.7 (%)

0.31 (%)

3.0

6.0

 

0.0001

 1. Deployment area is greater in CBST-AM than in CBST

11 > 3

136,601 (km2)

2610 (km2)

155,374 (km2)

1840 (km2)

  

0.9

0.0000

 2. Deployment area is greater in CBST than in GBST

3 > 17

155,374 (km2)

1840 (km2)

18,660 (km2)

903 (km2)

  

8.3

0.0000

 3. Deployment area is greater in CBST-AM than in GBST

11 > 17

136,601 (km2)

2610 (km2)

18,660 (km2)

903 (km2)

  

7.3

0.0000

  1. \(\bar{\boldsymbol{x}}\) and SD are the average and standard deviation of median genetic suitability (medHTp, population height values as a percent of the estimated height of a local population) and deployment area for seed transfer system scenarios for lodgepole pine and interior spruce at harvest. All tests are 1-sided, 2-sample, equal variance t-tests based on n = 4 independent, large-scale runs of each simulation. Hypotheses involving height pertain to medHTp in 2105. CBST-AM and CBST refer to climate-based seed transfer systems with and without assisted migration, respectively. medHTp difference is the difference expressed in the hypothesis. Volume difference is twice the medHTp difference (see Sect. 4.1). Deployment ratio is the deployment area of scenario a divided by the deployment area of scenario b