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Table 5 Results of each run of seed transfer system scenarios (Table 2) for lodgepole pine and interior spruce

From: Evaluating the effectiveness of climate-based seed transfer and assisted migration: a case study of lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var. latifolia Dougl.) and interior spruce (Picea engelmanii x glauca (Moench) Voss and their hybrids) in western Canada

    

Deployment area (km2)

medHTp 2025

medHTp 2105

Scenario

System

AM

tHTp

Run 1

Run 2

Run 3

Run 4

Mean

SD

Run 1

Run 2

Run 3

Run 4

Mean

SD

Run 1

Run 2

Run 3

Run 4

Mean

SD

Lodgepole pine

 1

CBST

No

99.0

28,740

27,231

29,293

27,462

28,182

995

94.8

94.2

94.8

94.5

94.6

0.33

84.4

84.4

83.9

84.7

84.3

0.30

 2

CBST

No

98.0

42,131

39,803

40,685

39,572

40,548

1159

95.0

94.7

94.8

94.7

94.8

0.16

85.2

85.0

84.9

84.7

84.9

0.18

 3

CBST

No

97.0

58,002

57,719

56,322

56,774

57,204

788

94.8

94.4

94.3

94.4

94.5

0.20

85.2

85.0

84.7

84.8

84.9

0.25

 4

CBST

No

96.0

77,013

74,355

75,270

75,504

75,535

1103

94.5

93.9

94.1

93.9

94.1

0.31

85.2

84.4

84.7

84.5

84.7

0.36

 5

CBST

No

95.0

95,911

93,568

94,234

93,612

94,331

1096

94.0

93.5

93.6

93.5

93.6

0.22

85.1

84.5

84.4

84.3

84.6

0.37

 6

CBST

No

94.0

118,305

122,494

119,503

122,594

120,724

2158

93.4

92.8

92.6

93.0

92.9

0.32

84.4

83.5

83.6

83.5

83.8

0.44

 7

CBST

No

93.0

147,694

146,822

144,832

143,119

145,617

2051

92.6

92.4

92.4

92.3

92.5

0.14

84.4

83.8

83.4

83.7

83.8

0.41

 8

CBST

No

92.0

170,549

172,616

170,357

167,752

170,318

1993

92.3

91.8

91.9

91.7

91.9

0.25

83.9

83.1

83.2

83.1

83.3

0.40

 9

CBST

Yes

99.0

9984

8366

9344

9804

9374

725

96.6

96.8

96.8

96.8

96.8

0.10

94.9

94.7

94.5

94.6

94.7

0.18

 10

CBST

Yes

98.0

16,502

17,011

17,627

16,925

17,016

464

96.4

96.7

96.7

96.3

96.5

0.20

93.9

93.8

94.3

93.8

93.9

0.26

 11

CBST

Yes

97.0

29,217

29,047

26,349

28,248

28,215

1314

95.9

96.0

96.0

96.0

96.0

0.04

92.6

92.4

92.5

92.7

92.5

0.13

 12

CBST

Yes

96.0

46,191

46,053

47,723

46,380

46,587

769

95.7

95.0

95.5

95.4

95.4

0.29

92.0

91.6

91.4

91.8

91.7

0.23

 13

CBST

Yes

95.0

63,845

69,906

66,419

66,924

66,774

2486

95.3

94.9

94.9

94.9

95.0

0.19

90.4

90.2

89.8

89.9

90.1

0.27

 14

CBST

Yes

94.0

88,438

90,529

93,101

87,753

89,955

2406

94.5

94.3

94.3

94.2

94.3

0.12

89.0

88.7

88.8

88.5

88.8

0.19

 15

CBST

Yes

93.0

106,256

102,508

104,796

108,686

105,561

2592

94.1

94.0

93.9

94.0

94.0

0.08

88.7

88.6

88.6

88.7

88.7

0.10

 16

CBST

Yes

92.0

121,367

120,927

121,154

120,408

120,964

412

93.9

93.6

93.6

93.4

93.6

0.19

88.5

88.2

88.2

88.2

88.3

0.16

 17

GBST

No

N/A

12,505

12,861

13,689

11,844

12,725

769

96.5

96.4

96.2

96.4

96.4

0.13

85.7

86.3

86.2

86.0

86.0

0.26

 18

No system

No

0

946,069

946,069

946,069

946,069

946,069

0

74.2

74.1

74.3

74.2

74.2

0.09

70.0

70.0

70.2

70.1

70.1

0.11

Interior spruce

 1

CBST

No

99.0

53,797

54,367

53,953

54,496

54,153

332

97.6

97.6

97.6

97.6

97.6

0.02

91.9

91.9

91.8

91.7

91.8

0.07

 2

CBST

No

98.0

103,423

101,288

101,161

102,834

102,177

1127

97.4

97.4

97.4

97.4

97.4

0.01

92.3

92.3

92.3

92.2

92.3

0.04

 3

CBST

No

97.0

153,338

154,747

155,689

157,723

155,374

1840

97.1

97.1

97.1

97.0

97.1

0.02

92.4

92.3

92.4

92.3

92.4

0.05

 4

CBST

No

96.0

233,769

228,538

230,386

233,289

231,496

2474

96.4

96.4

96.5

96.4

96.4

0.04

91.8

91.7

91.7

91.7

91.7

0.05

 5

CBST

No

95.0

285,265

282,906

286,876

289,823

286,217

2904

96.1

96.1

96.2

96.1

96.1

0.05

91.7

91.6

91.7

91.7

91.7

0.04

 6

CBST

No

94.0

345,941

337,759

341,359

347,246

343,076

4352

95.7

95.7

95.8

95.7

95.7

0.03

91.5

91.4

91.5

91.5

91.5

0.04

 7

CBST

No

93.0

408,036

397,658

403,453

406,170

403,829

4524

95.3

95.4

95.4

95.3

95.3

0.04

91.3

91.3

91.3

91.3

91.3

0.02

 8

CBST

No

92.0

442,049

437,541

442,114

444,658

441,591

2961

95.1

95.1

95.1

95.0

95.1

0.03

91.1

91.1

91.1

91.1

91.1

0.02

 9

CBST

Yes

99.0

26,223

25,489

24,456

24,988

25,289

752

98.6

98.7

98.7

98.6

98.6

0.04

97.2

97.2

97.2

96.9

97.1

0.16

 10

CBST

Yes

98.0

82,225

79,767

78,761

79,425

80,045

1513

98.1

98.1

98.1

98.1

98.1

0.03

96.1

96.1

96.2

96.1

96.1

0.03

 11

CBST

Yes

97.0

138,183

137,873

132,700

137,650

136,601

2610

97.5

97.4

97.5

97.4

97.4

0.04

94.7

94.7

94.7

94.6

94.7

0.04

 12

CBST

Yes

96.0

194,522

194,562

191,936

194,027

193,762

1241

97.0

97.1

97.1

97.0

97.0

0.03

94.4

94.3

94.4

94.3

94.4

0.04

 13

CBST

Yes

95.0

250,860

250,849

248,073

250,995

250,194

1415

96.6

96.7

96.6

96.6

96.6

0.03

93.9

93.8

93.9

93.8

93.8

0.07

 14

CBST

Yes

94.0

300,887

301,116

299,178

303,498

301,170

1777

96.3

96.3

96.2

96.2

96.3

0.03

93.4

93.3

93.5

93.4

93.4

0.05

 15

CBST

Yes

93.0

356,157

354,835

353,395

358,644

355,758

2230

95.8

95.9

95.8

95.8

95.8

0.02

92.9

92.8

92.9

92.9

92.9

0.03

 16

CBST

Yes

92.0

407,701

406,377

403,668

411,081

407,207

3080

95.4

95.5

95.4

95.4

95.4

0.05

92.5

92.4

92.5

92.4

92.4

0.03

 17

GBST

No

N/A

17,934

18,861

19,855

17,990

18,660

903

97.8

97.9

98.0

97.8

97.9

0.08

91.6

91.6

91.4

92.1

91.7

0.31

 18

No system

No

0

946,069

946,069

946,069

946,069

946,069

0

90.5

90.4

90.4

90.4

90.4

0.05

86.8

86.9

87.0

87.0

86.9

0.08

  1. HTp is the population height as a percent of the estimated height of a local population. medHTp is the median HTp of simulated random transfers at establishment (2025) and harvest (2105). SD refers to the standard deviation of medHTp. AM refers to assisted migration. tHTp refers to the genetic suitability threshold. CBST refers to climate-based seed transfer. GBST refers to geographic-based seed transfer. N/A is not applicable