Fig. 5

The interval plot displays the posterior distribution of the coefficients, illustrating the effect size of each environmental variable, as well as the abundance of both bark beetle species and lure at 11 sites in the Czech Republic in 2022 on Nemozoma elongatum abundance estimates derived from MCMC samples. The plot shows the estimated median value of the coefficients’ posterior distribution (represented by a blue circle), along with the Bayesian highest density credible intervals (depicted as a dark blue line) and the Bayesian 95% prediction intervals (shown as a light blue line). An explanatory variable has a significant impact on the dependent variable if zero is not part of the highest density interval (dark blue)